Welcome to this week’s edition of NFL Breakdown. We focus on three games you need to check out and all the info that you’ll need ahead of the contests. This week we will look at the matchups between the Raiders and Jets, Lions and Bears, and Colts and Texans.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets
- Spread: Raiders -8.5 (-110)
- Point Total: 46.5
Three weeks ago, the Raiders looked headed towards the playoffs. Today, they are reeling from a two-game losing streak at the hands of the Chiefs and Falcons. Things got so bad in Atlanta last week that Nathan Peterman made an appearance at quarterback. As luck would have it, the winless New York Jets are up next. The problem is, Atlanta gives up more passing yards per game than the Jets. Good news, the Jets give up the fourth-most points per game so far this year. Las Vegas’s defense is going to have to try to stifle the Jets and build some confidence for the late push.
Will the New York Jets become the third team this millennium to finish without winning a game? Other than the season finale against New England, this is arguably the most winnable game on the schedule. Quarterback Sam Darnold was extremely ineffective in his return last week, throwing for 197 yards and two interceptions against Miami. He will have a chance to The lone bright spot on the team is Frank Gore. In his 647th season, on a dumpster fire, Gore is averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
Defensively, both teams give up 29 points per game. Vegas is 7-4 against the spread this year. They are 3-2 against teams with losing records, which gives New York an opportunity. The teams are a combined 12-9-1 in over/unders on the year. The line has moved a full point since Tuesday in favor of the Raiders. Take the Raiders and the over, neither defense gets much going.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Bears -3 (-110)
- Point Total: 44.5
The Lions finally fired head coach Matt Patricia after their Thanksgiving beatdown at the hands of the Houston Texans. Detroit rushed 29 times against what was the worst rush defense in the league and was unable to get anything going. The defense, which Patricia was supposed to fix, gives up a second-worst 29.8 points per game. Dallas is the only team that gives up more. They lost a four-point game to Chicago in the opener, but both teams are struggling to find their identity.
Chicago has managed to lose all their games except two by one score or less. Talk about an inability to close. They look significantly worse except for their exciting win over the Buccaneers. Last week against the Packers, Mitch Trubisky threw the ball 46 times and only managed 242 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. David Montgomery and Allen Robinson continue to waste their careers on a team that’s essentially a QB away from serious contention.
The Lions are 3-7-1 against the spread, all three of their covers are on the road. Chicago is 5-6 against the spread and 4-7 in over/unders. Expect Detroit to get some of that Atlanta magic and show the league just how bad Matt Patricia was. Lions get the upset and the over, once they get their foot on the gas they will not let up.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
- Spread: Colts -3.5 (-110)
- Point Total: 50.5 (-110)
Indianapolis lost to the Titans last week because of course, they did. Their third-ranked rushing defense got torched by Derrick Henry to the tune of 178 yards and 3 touchdowns. They do not have such a tall task against Houston, but they will need to put last week in the rearview mirror. Indy’s rushing attack was stifled as well, though they have a favorable matchup against Houston’s weak front. Look for a heavy dose of Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines, though the latter is more effective on passing downs this year.
Houston had probably their best showing of the season on Thanksgiving against the Lions. Their terrible rush defense held down Detroit’s attack and the offense put up 41 points. Much of that came on the back of Will Fuller, who was suspended 6 games earlier this week for performance-enhancing substances. Brandin Cooks will be expected to step into that number one spot with Keke Coutee once again expanding his role late in the season. The only thing Houston has to play for this year is to ruin other teams’ chances at the playoffs. They get their shot this week.
Once again, I failed to pick the Colts match up correctly. At this rate, they will make the breakdown for the rest of the season. I am determined to right that wrong this week. The Colts WILL cover this week, I am speaking it into existence. Take the under as well.
Week 12 Recap: Colts killed me once again, Belichick showed Kingsbury the door, and it was a rough one against the spread. Great week for over/unders, though.
- Last Week Against the Spread: 1-2
- Last Week Over/Under: 3-0
- Season Against the Spread: 13-14
- Season Over/Under: 10-5
*Odds via DraftKings