Monday night brings the Seahawks (7-3) visiting the Eagles (3-6-1) in a clash that will have a drastic impact on the NFC playoff picture. If Seattle loses, they hand the Rams (7-4) the ability to control their own destiny in their quest to win the NFC West. With a win, the Eagles would have a 51% shot at winning the division, per FiveThirtyEight; with a loss, that drops to just 23%.
Let’s take a look at some bets to make in the pivotal Monday Night matchup:
Chris Carson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Seahawks were one of the run-heaviest teams in recent seasons before Pete Carroll started letting Russell Wilson cook. Seattle has been passing on first-and-10 at a top-10 rate this year, though Carroll has been hinting that he may slow it down again and we saw that last Thursday night as the Carlos Hyde-led Seahawks beat the Cardinals.
Hyde, who notched 79 yards in the TNF game, will be the backup on Monday night against the Eagles, as Chris Carson is healthy again for the first time since Week 7. The Eagles have been solid vs. the run this season, ranking 11th in defensive rushing DVOA heading into Week 12. It won’t be the easiest sledding but Carson should cross the 51-yard rushing threshold, something he’s done in 4-of-5 games this season (excluding the Week 7 contest he left early with injury).
Under 49.0 Total Points (-110)
If the Seahawks end up with a run-heavy approach, this game could end up looking much like the two teams’ last two meetings (Seattle won in the first round of the playoffs last year by a score of 17-9 and in Week 12 of last season by the same score).
Neither team has a great offensive line, while the Eagles’ defensive line is their strength. The Seahawks’ defense is showing signs of life after getting Jamal Adams back for a few healthy games and seeing Carlos Dunlap in action after acquiring him from the Bengals prior to the trade deadline.
Additionally, there should be strong winds at game time in Philadelphia as there are Thunderstorms running through the area this afternoon. There’s just a 25% chance of rain during the game but it should be a messy environment none-the-less, favoring the running the games and the under.
Eagles +12 in a 6-Point Teaser
As of this writing, the Seahawks are favored by 6 points and while I’m staying away from that line, employing Philadelphia in a 6-point teaser crosses two crucial points (7, 10) and in an expected low-scoring affair grabbing this many points is too good to pass up on.
The question is: what to tease them with? Some may look at the Steelers (-10) as an opportunity to tease it down to -4, though the weather may not be great which could somehow keep the Ravens in the game. Teasing the Eagles with the under is an option in some books, though I tend to try and stay away from teasing totals.
Looking ahead to Week 13, one team stands out. The Raiders just got smoked in Atlanta but I can’t envision them losing to the Jets in New York (the line is -7.5). The Falcons have been underrated against the run and shut down Josh Jacobs & Co. on Sunday and while the Jets similarly have an underrated run defense, Las Vegas should be able to take care of business in a bounce-back game.