The Lions lost to the Phillip Walker-led Panthers last week in a game that surely felt like Matt Patricia lost control of. Walker, who went undrafted out of Temple University after the 2016 season before finding some success in the #XFL2020, completed 70.6% of his passes against Detroit’s defense and if the Lions didn’t play just days later, perhaps Patricia would have gotten the pink slip on Monday after the 20-0 beatdown.
If the Lions lose to the Texans, the front office will have no such restrictions in ridding themselves of Patricia. Detroit will essentially have a mini-bye week and the chance to move on from a coach who has just 13 wins in 41 attempts.
- Line: Texans -3 (-110)
- Total Points: 50.5 (-110)
Expected Weather: N/A (Dome).
*Odds via DraftKings
The Texans aren’t exactly primed to take advantage of the Lions’ situation. While Houston is 3-3 since firing their own coach—Bill O’Brien—two of those wins have come against the lowly Jaguars with the other coming last week vs. a Patriots team coming off of a major upset over the Ravens a week before.
Matthew Stafford will have to carry this team if Swift is out, as neither Adrian Peterson nor Kerryon Johnson has the current skillset to truly take advantage of Houston’s 31st-ranked rushing defense (DVOA). Swift playing is a major deal; Make sure to check on his status.
Teaser Potential? Taking the Lions and teasing them up to +9 is one strategy worth considering, though only if Swift plays. If he doesn’t, offense will be difficult to come by for Stafford & Co, which means that the Texans could blow past that number (Houston’s three wins this season are by an average of 8.3 points per game with only one—Week 5 vs. Jacksonville—coming by more than seven points).
Going the other way and shifting the Texans’ line is a safer play, as if they lose this game, it’ll likely be close. Houston +3 at -245 might not sound sexy but let’s put it this way: How’s a 41% return on your money during a three-hour span sound? That’s probably a little more enticing music to your ears.
More Texans-Lions Betting Notes
- The Lions have an implied total of 23.5 and a history under Patricia of starting slow. If you think they’re going to struggle, betting the first-half under of 10.5 (-122) could be a nice way to increase your bankroll before your first helping of Turkey and stuffing.
- Will Fuller at $6,400 on DraftKings is an intriguing play in DFS (stacking him with Watson is a strategy I’m employing in Thanksgiving day-only games). The Lions are in the bottom-10 in defending the pass via DVOA.
- Watson is just 3-7 ATS this season (tied for league-worst alongside Eagles QB Carson Wentz). However, he’s covered two straight games.
- The Lions have lost seven of their last eight home games, though 10 of their last 11 home games have gone over.