Tennessee has lost two straight games and while the loss to Cincinnati in Week 8 is surprising, it shouldn’t be alarming.
Physical defenses take a toll on NFL clubs and the Steelers’ unit (back in Week 7) fits the mold. We’ve seen teams struggle in the week after a matchup against a top-notch grinding defense; clubs facing the Seahawks during their defensive peak were notorious for having shaky games in the follow-up.
Bears at Titans Odds
- Line: Titans -6.5 (-110)
- Total Points: 47.0 (-110)
Expected Weather: It’s going to be a beautiful day in Nashville at 1 pm ON Sunday with less than one percent of rain and an expected temperature of 74%, per Forecast.io.
*Odds via DraftKings
Assuming there is a game (Chicago shut down its facility on Thursday because of COVID-19), expect Tennessee to bounce back show that they are the superior team. They sit 13th in the NFL with an 8.3% Total DVOA with their strength coming on offensive (4th in the league).
The Bears are a slightly below-average -3.7% in total DVOA (18th, sandwiched between the Lions and Chargers). Chicago sits sixth on defense but 27th on offense with a -17.0% rating (closer to the last place Jets than the 23rd-ranked Falcons).
Key Risk Factor: One thing that worries me about the Titans is their offensive line. Tennessee lost Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan against the Texans in Week 6 and they haven’t won since. Chicago’s pass-rush isn’t as fierce as its reputation, as the club sits 19th on the season in sacks.
The Titans have only won one game this season by more than 6.5 points (vs. the Bills in Week 5), as our own Zach Ruff notes (Ruff likes the over in this one). Still, I’m not leaning into Chicago, as Tennessee should still win this game. Instead, I’m taking a heavy position on them via 6-point teasers to knock the line down to -0.5 and the Moneyline (-265).
More Bears-Titans Betting Notes
- The Bears’ passing defense ranks fifth in defensive DVOA, something that causes opposing teams to attempt to beat Chicago on the ground. Tennessee has the ability to do that and betting Henry to rush for over 90.5 yards (expected line once player props are set 24 hours before the game) is another way for bettors to attack this game.
- The Titans lost to the Bengals on the road and the franchise has won each of their last eight games as home favorites following a loss.
- The Bears have covered the spread in four of their last five games as an underdog while the Titans haven’t lost ATS at home this season (3-0-1).