Pats-Chiefs, Falcons-Packers: 4 Bets to Make on Monday Night

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Due to Covid-19 positive tests, the Pats-Chiefs has been moved to 7:05 Monday night. The Falcons-Packers game was also moved back to 8:50 consequently.

The Patriots will be without Cam Newton as a result of a positive test moving the line in that game from +6 to +10.5 with the Chiefs as the favorite with the total set at 49.5 points.

In the late game, the Falcons travel to Green Bay with the Packers a seven-point favorite and the total at 57.0 Green Bay comes into the game at 3-0 and the Falcons at 0-3.

Atlanta desperately needs a win and their defense has been dreadful so far this year, though Aaron Rodgers is probably not what the doctor ordered to fix their defensive woes; he’s been playing at an MVP level through the first three weeks of the season. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are questionable for Atlanta but expected to play.

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New England/Kansas City Under 49.5 (-110) 

Brian Hoyer will be the starting quarterback for the Patriots tonight: Not quite the flare that Cam Newton brings.

Knowing Hoyer’s capabilities, Bill Belichick is expected to employ a run-heavy approach in the game, as the only way the Patriots will be able to keep this game close will be to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The best way to do that will be to win the time of possession by running the ball early and often.  New England was very effective in the rushing game last week behind excellent offensive line play and should be able to run the ball all night.

On the other side of the ball, the Kansas City offense should be able to score. Expect Belichick to try and take away his number one option in tight end Travis Kelce; New England’s defense will try to confuse Mahomes and disguise coverages.

Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be the difference for the Chiefs offense. If New England tries to take away the pass and gives the Chiefs have a serviceable running game to lean on. If both teams take this approach, this game could be a little lower scoring than the experts think.

Atlanta/Green Bay Over 57 Points (-110)

The Atlanta Falcons may have a historically bad defense; They cannot stop anyone or anything. In comes Aaron Rodgers and this Green Bay offense that has been flawless through the first three weeks this season.

The Falcons are scoring 30 points per game but giving up 36 on the other side. The Packers are averaging a whopping 40.7 points per game, though their offensive prowess has masked their porous defense: Green Bay is giving up 28.3 points on defense. Expect to see an offensive onslaught in Wisconsin tonight.

Matt Ryan Over 305.5 Passing Yards (-112)

The Falcons will be fighting for their season tonight. They have no rushing game to speak of in spite of their offseason acquisition of high-priced running back Todd Gurley. They will need to score early and often against this undefeated Packers team if they expect a W. Aaron Rodgers will not take his foot off the pedal keeping pressure on Atlanta to continue to score all night long. Ryan has 961 passing yards through three weeks and he should go well over this total if the Falcons intend on keeping this game close.

Aaron Jones Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Jones is averaging 101 yards per game this season and has faced much tougher defenses than he will see tonight. If the Packers get ahead by more than one score, as they are expected to do, Jones will get his chances. He always seems to pop off at least one big run every week and, as previously mentioned, the Falcons defense cannot stop anyone. He is averaging over six yards per carry so far and should take advantage of a weak defense.

*Odds via DraftKings

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