Make no mistake about it, the NFC South still runs through New Orleans, as we wrote in their division preview. Yet, from a betting point of view, there is no value in betting on the Saints to win the NFC South.
One area that I do see value in is Drew Brees’ passing yards under 3900.5 at DraftKings. Since 2016, Brees’ pass attempts have declined by 140, 50 & 108 respectively.
I know that Brees missed 5 games last year but the Saints also have made the decision that Taysom Hill is going to be their QB of the future by signing him to a 2 year, $21 million contract with $16 million guaranteed. Hill has been incorporated into the game plan more and more by the week it seems.
It was still somewhat surprising—not that they signed Hill to an extension but by how much they gave him. I think it sends a pretty clear message that he will be added to the gameplan more and more as this season progresses. This should take attempts and passing yards away from the future Hall of Famer. Even if Brees stays healthy for the duration of the season, I cannot see him throwing for over 3900.5 yards. If he is not in the starting lineup for all 16 games, then 3900.5 seems almost impossible.
Value on Panthers Coach to Exceed Expectations?
Another wager that I have is on Matt Rhule to be the Coach of the Year in the NFL. I got it at 60-1 but DraftKings has it listed at 40-1 right now. I don’t think there is any value in the pick at those odds but if you can find it at higher than 40-1 it may be worth a small wager.
Betting on Brady’s Passing Yards
“Tom Brady has lost arm strength…He’s not what he used to be.” That’s what some want you to believe the narrative is as Brady enters his 21st NFL season. Everything he accomplishes from here forward is unprecedented territory.
Fanduel has set Brady’s season passing yards total at 4224.5; the over is a decent prop, as I believe the narratives are completely misconstrued and he has a lot left in the tank.
Nobody has worked harder to keep their body in playing shape than Brady has. And if this new style of offense in Tampa Bay can keep him upright, I believe he will shatter this total. I wouldn’t be surprised if he surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in 2020. The Buccaneers have a below-average running game and are going to rely heavily on the air game. Brady has gone over this total in eight of his 18 NFL seasons (not including his rookie year or the 2008 season where he started only one game), though he has never had the weapons that he will have this season in South Florida.
One of his most prolific seasons included 4,806 passing yards when Randy Moss was alongside him in New England. While there is no talent like Moss on the Buccaneers, collectively, his weapons are better this season than any year in New England. That, coupled with Bruce Arians’ game plan that relies on the downfield pass, it’s hard to imagine that the Buccaneers are going to play too many low-scoring games. My money is on Brady to the over on 4224.5 passing yards.