NFL Betting Favorites off a bye
Courtesy of USA Sports Images

The NFL schedule has been released and there are some quirks, like the rare Friday matchup. There isn’t much data available on how teams play on Fridays or even Christmas, as it doesn’t happen that often. Looking for a trend in that isn’t going to be feasible but there is a major trend that plays every year.

According to VSiN, the betting favorites coming off a bye is a prudent strategy, though focusing on road favorites coming off a bye is an even better strategy. Since 2003:

NFL teams coming off a bye: 254-228 ATS (52.7%)

Favorites coming off a bye: 148-103 ATS (59%)

Road favorites coming off a bye: 62-28 ATS (68.9%)

VSiN found that better teams actually benefit more when coming off the bye. That, coupled with the public’s inclination to overvalue home-field advantage creates a unique opportunity.

  • Week 5: Lions, Packers
  • Week 6: Raiders, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks
  • Week 7: Colts, Jaguars, Vikings, Titans
  • Week 8: Cardinals, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Redskins
  • Week 9: Bengals, Browns, Rams, Eagles
  • Week 10: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers
  • Week 11: Bills, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, 49ers
  • Week 12: No bye teams
  • Week 13: Panthers, Bucs