The Patriots enter the season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl for the third straight year. Last year, bookmakers gave them a 2.5-1 odds, the heaviest favorite since Tom Brady‘s 2007 squad that ultimately went 18-1.
| NE Patriots | Caesars Entertainment (AC) | Delaware Park | Bovada |
| SB Odds | +700 | +700 | +650 |
Only two preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl have gone on to actually win the big game (06 Colts at +600; 16 Patriots +650). The favorites haven’t faired that poorly, as Greg Gulielmo of FiveThirtyEight notes. Just four of the teams since 2001 missed the playoffs and nine of the favorite/co-favorite the Super Bowl, with seven of the teams losing in the game.
| Year | Team | Odds (+) | Implied probability | Actual Wins | Results |
| 2018 | New England | 650 | 13% | — | |
| 2017 | New England | 250 | 29% | 13 | Lost SB |
| 2016 | New England | 650 | 13% | 14 | Won SB |
| 2015 | Green Bay | 500 | 17% | 10 | Lost Div |
| Seattle | 500 | 17% | 10 | Lost Div | |
| 2014 | Seattle | 500 | 17% | 12 | Lost SB |
| Denver | 500 | 17% | 12 | Lost Div | |
| 2013 | Denver | 650 | 13% | 13 | Lost SB |
| San Francisco | 650 | 13% | 12 | Lost Conf | |
| 2012 | Green Bay | 600 | 14% | 11 | Lost Div |
| 2011 | New England | 600 | 14% | 13 | Lost SB |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | 800 | 11% | 10 | Lost WC |
| 2009 | New England | 500 | 17% | 10 | Lost WC |
| 2008 | New England | 350 | 22% | 11 | Missed |
| 2007 | New England | 250 | 29% | 16 | Lost SB |
| 2006 | Indianapolis | 600 | 14% | 12 | Won SB |
| 2005 | Indianapolis | 500 | 17% | 14 | Lost Div |
| New England | 500 | 17% | 10 | Lost Div | |
| Philadelphia | 500 | 17% | 6 | Missed | |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | 500 | 17% | 13 | Lost SB |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay | 800 | 11% | 7 | Missed |
| 2002 | St. Louis | 350 | 22% | 7 | Missed |
| 2001 | St. Louis | 400 | 20% | 14 | Lost SB |
*Chart has been updated to include New England’s most recent odds
